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Grand National Key Trends


Key Trends in The Aintree Grand National

Saturday 8th April




The Randox Health Grand National takes place at Aintree Racecourse at 17.15 (UK) on Saturday 8th April 2017. Formerly known as the The Crabbie’s Grand National, it is perhaps the world’s most famous horse race. It has been held at Aintree Racecourse, near Liverpool, since 1839. The Grand National race now forms part of a three-day horse racing festival at Aintree (6th-8th April 2017). There are 21 races held at the Grand National Festival. With 11 Grade 1 races and all the fashion and thrills of Ladies Day, punters and racegoers are right to be excited.



The Grand National is generally regarded as one of the toughest horse races in the world. Even just finishing the 4 miles, 3 and a half furlongs circuit at Aintree Racecourse is considered a feat. So if it is so tough the question begs - how do you go about winning the thing? Looking at key factors and trends it is possible to come up with a checklist of what it takes to win, and more importantly which horses you should be betting on. The first factor that becomes apparent is age; three of the last five ‘Nationals’ have been won by 11 year olds. In fact, of the last 20 Grand Nationals, 18 (90%) were won by 9-11 year olds., when you couple this with the fact that no ‘teenager’ has been placed in the race in over 50 years we can see a pattern. Put simply, bets should be put on horses that are no younger than nine, and no older than twelve. There are always outliers however, including Many Clouds who won the Grand National as an 8-year-old in 2015.



So what else is there to look out for? Weight plays an important factor in all horse races so it should be noted that only three horses (“Hedgehunter”, “Don’t Push it” and “Neptune Collonges”) in the last 33 years have won carrying more than 11 stone. In modern times only the great “Red Rum” has ever won carrying more than 12 stone. A general rule of thumb should be to not back a horse that is carrying 14lbs more than bottom weight.



You can find some of the key trends for the Grand National in the table below:



Grand National Key Trends

Age

Weight

Experience

Other

Desirable Criteria and Facts

Over 8

Carrying no more than 11 stone

Aintree experience

Irish or French bred

Under 13

No more than 14lbs over bottom weight

Previously placed

Check trainer Grand National record

Preferably 10/11 year old horse

Officially at least 5lb well in

Win over 3 miles

Jockey has been placed before

No 7 year old placed for over forty years

Only three horses to win carry 11 stone 5lbs + in last 35 years

Previous experience in other Nationals

Big odds are not a factor, 25-1 + has won 5 of last 8

No teenager has placed for over forty years

Only Red Rum won carrying more than 12 stone

Placed in other Nationals (Welsh, Irish etc.)

Rated 143 or higher (Ideally 148)

3 of last five winners were 11 year olds

Only 1 Cheltenham winner has won in same season

Previously won a graded or listed chase

Run in at least 10 chases, winning at least 3

23 of last 24 winners ran between 3-6 times earlier in the season

Finished in top 3 in last completed start

Before Rule the World, no Irish trained winner since 2007, Irish previously dominant 6 wins 1999-2007



Get Betting Knowledge for the Grand National with William Hill Online

Everyone knows that jockeys and trainers play a big role in the outcome of race, if you are racing a Ferrari you want Michael Schumacher in the driving seat and the best team behind the controls. Top trainers like Nicky Henderson have never won the Grand National despite 37 attempts. Others have has more success, J P McManus has secured 7 places in the last 11 Nationals. Jockey Paul Maloney has been placed 6 times in the last 6 Nationals. This is all worth noting, some jockeys ‘like’ Aintree they are comfortable in the long distance race. It also follows that some trainers’ styles may not be suited to the Aintree. Looking at the records of both trainers and jockeys is definitely a smart move before betting on The Grand National.



Experience too is key to unlocking a win at Aintree. Unlike many races The Grand National has entrants who enter year after year. Greats like “Red Rum” (3 wins 2 places) succeeded in the race multiple times. Look to other ‘Nationals’ (Welsh, Irish etc) to see how horses fare over the long distance, 13 out of the last 20 winners had won or been placed in another ‘National’ or similar distance race. Course knowledge is also important as more than half of the last 14 winners had experienced the fences at Aintree before, 5 of whom had ran the National the previous year. It is always good to look at which trainers and jockeys are having recent success at Aintree. The Grand National is held on Day 3 of The Crabbie’s Grand National Festival, Day 1 (Opening Day) and Day 2 (Ladies’ Day) can be good markers for ‘National’ success. Don’t forget, you can bet on all races at the Grand National Festival and the National itself online at William Hill.



The National is a gruelling test of stamina for every horse, so looking at those who have had success in longer distance races is advisable. For example, nearly every one of the last 43 45 winners had previously won races at over three miles.


Grand National betting is more than just a lottery. Analysis of the Grand National trends can really help you make the right selection for your bet. You can get invaluable information on all the runners and riders in the Grand National by visiting William Hill. Listen to our daily horse race podcasts, which provide you with the latest information on horse racing at Aintree and beyond. Use our Tip Advisor service, which allows punters to share the latest tips and betting advice.



Trends to note for the 2017 Grand National

Trends to note for the 2017 Grand National

• Champion Jockey Richard Johnson should make his record-breaking 21st Grand National ride at Aintree this year. The problem? He also holds the records for most rides without winning the race. AP McCoy used to be regarded as the best jockey never to win the National, but broke his hoodoo on Don’t Push It in 2010. Surely Johnson will win the big one soon?



An Unwanted Streak:

Champion Jockey Richard Johnson should make his record-breaking 21st Grand National ride at Aintree this year. The problem? He also holds the records for most rides without winning the race. AP McCoy used to be regarded as the best jockey never to win the National, but broke his hoodoo on Don’t Push It in 2010. Surely Johnson will win the big one soon?



Boys Club:

Statistics can sometimes be misleading. 13 mares have won the Grand National, representing a reasonable strike-rate. However, no mare has won the race since Nickel Coin back in 1951.



Curse of the Favourites:

Irish-trained horses had some great success at the turn of the millennium, with Papillion, Hedgehunter and Silver Birch all romping home in 1st place. A bit of a drought ensued between 2008 and 2015. Rule the World ensured Irish eyes were smiling again in 2016.



Trainer trends:

No trainer has won the race two years in a row since Ginger McCain in 1974 (Red Rum). In fact, Nigel Twiston-Davies is the only trainer to have trained more than one winner in the last 30 years. The jockeys at the Grand National have had more luck in recent times; Leighton Aspell won two in a row in 2014 and 2015.



The 2017 Grand National is fast approaching and for some great early prices check out William Hill. William Hill has been covering the Grand National horse race for decades, so it is no wonder that so many decide to place their bets with us. Check out our Grand National Home Page to get all the latest betting news, results and promotions. William Hill is the number one choice for betting on The Grand National.



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